It will take many more months to prepare Iraq’s still struggling military for a long-anticipated assault on Islamic State’s (IS) biggest stronghold in the country, the city of Mosul, US and
Iraqi officials say – and it may not even be possible to retake it this year, despite repeated vows by Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi.
As the US and its allies furiously work to train thousands more troops for the daunting task of retaking Iraq’s second-largest city, IS fighters are launching a diversion campaign of bloody suicide attacks in Baghdad and elsewhere. Their aim is to force Iraq’s overburdened security forces to spread even thinner to protect the capital and other cities rather than prepare a fresh Mosul operation.
IS has stepped up insurgent-style attacks on Baghdad and other towns removed from frontline fighting. Over the past week a double bombing at a market in Baghdad’s Sadr city killed more than 70. The following day a suicide attack at a funeral north of Baghdad killed over 30. And yesterday, IS claimed responsibility for another suicide attack south of Baghdad that killed at least 47.
Iraq’s answer to that has been to plan to build a wall around the capital. Meanwhile, the US-led coalition and the Iraqis are struggling to protect pockets of territory that have been recaptured from the militants to free up forces for a Mosul assault.
“The forces that are going to conduct that assault into the city, they’re not in place yet,” said US Army Colonel Christopher Garver, a spokesman for the coalition.
The northern city of Mosul, once home to more than a million people, was the biggest prize captured by IS when it swept over much of Iraq’s north and west in the summer of 2014 and declared a “caliphate” across those lands and the ones it captured in Syria.
While Iraqi forces have clawed back some territory in the past year, retaking Mosul is considered crucial for breaking the jihadists’ back in the country. Estimates of the number of IS fighters in Mosul vary from a few thousand to no more than 10,000, according to the coalition.
The Iraqi military is still struggling to regroup. When Mosul fell to IS, more than a third of the military disintegrated as thousands of soldiers shed their uniforms and dropped their weapons to flee.
The US-led coalition began a training programme months later in December 2014, but so far only 18,500 soldiers and security forces have been trained in courses which last around seven weeks.
Experts question whether such a crash course is adequate preparation. Coalition and Iraqi officials estimate eight to 12 brigades, or an estimated 24,000 to 36,000 troops, will be needed for the operation to capture Mosul.
So far, 2,000 to 3,000 Iraqi troops have been deployed at Makhmour base, the likely staging ground for a Mosul assault, located 67km southeast of the city.
“We are all trained, qualified and ready for battle. But this force is not enough to retake Mosul,” said Iraqi Lieutenant Colonel Mohammed al-Wagaa, stationed at Makhmour. “The battle for Mosul is going to take a long time.”
Under political pressure to show victory, al-Abadi has repeatedly vowed to “liberate” Mosul this year. But US Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart, head of the Defence Intelligence Agency, told Congress last month, “I’m not as optimistic”.
Stewart said they may be able to begin “isolation operations” around the city, but “securing or taking Mosul is an extensive operation and not something I see in the next year or so”.
The Iraqi military’s few competent, battle-tested units are scattered, helping hold various front lines against IS in the country’s central and western provinces or tied down controlling cities and towns retaken from the militants since other security forces aren’t capable.